Tim Walz vs JD Vance Debate Fact Check: Who lied, who told the truth?

During a recent debate, political figures made numerous claims on topics ranging from U.S. energy production to healthcare and gun violence, sparking scrutiny over their accuracy. While some assertions, like the U.S. maintaining record oil output and Trump’s impact on the trade deficit, hold up under examination, others—such as claims about Iran's access to assets and gun violence statistics—present more nuanced realities. This fact-check dives into the truth behind these statements, revealing a complex mix of accuracy and exaggeration.

Tim Walz’s Statements

CLAIM: Walz stated that the U.S. is producing more natural gas and oil than ever before.
WHAT WE KNOW: This statement is largely accurate. In March 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration confirmed that the country had been the top producer of crude oil for six consecutive years, breaking records in output. The agency also reported that no other nation was expected to surpass the U.S. production level of 13.0 million barrels per day anytime soon. The U.S. averaged 12.9 million barrels daily in 2023. Additionally, dry natural gas production hit an all-time high in December 2023, though it is anticipated to fall in 2024 for the first time since 2020.

CLAIM: “Donald Trump hasn’t paid any federal tax in 10 of the last 15 years, including his final year as president.”
WHAT WE KNOW: This claim is mostly correct based on public records. In 2020, The New York Times revealed that Trump had paid no federal income tax es in 10 out of 15 years due to significant reported losses. He did, however, pay $750 in federal taxes during his first year in office and the year he won the election. Trump dismissed these reports as "fake news." Later, documents released by the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee showed that he had paid no income tax in his last year as president, although he did pay some form of tax in all four years.

CLAIM: Minnesota’s child tax credit has reduced childhood poverty by a third.
WHAT WE KNOW: This remains uncertain. According to a projection by Columbia University’s Center on Poverty & Social Policy, Minnesota’s child tax credit for 2023 was expected to reduce child poverty by one-third. However, no specific report has confirmed whether this target was achieved. The governor's office released figures indicating that more than $545 million had been distributed to over 215,000 families, but no detailed analysis of its impact on poverty has been published.

CLAIM: Minnesota ranks first in healthcare.
WHAT WE KNOW: This is true, depending on the source. WalletHub, a financial information site, ranked Minnesota as having the best healthcare system in the U.S. in a 2024 report, based on factors such as cost, care accessibility, and quality. Other rankings, like those from Forbes, also placed Minnesota at the top, but results may differ according to the specific metrics used by different evaluators.

CLAIM: Minneapolis has seen the lowest inflation rates.
WHAT WE KNOW: This is mostly accurate during specific timeframes. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Minneapolis-Saint Paul area recorded the lowest inflation rate in the U.S. in May and July 2023, as well as in March 2024, based on the 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index.

CLAIM: Walz said Trump created the largest trade deficit in U.S. history with China.
WHAT WE KNOW: This is true. Under Trump’s presidency, the U.S. trade deficit with China hit a record high of $419.2 billion in 2018, an increase from the previous record of $375.5 billion in 2017. This followed a series of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, which led to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products.


JD Vance’s Statements

CLAIM: Vance claimed that Iran gained over $100 billion in unfrozen assets thanks to the Kamala Harris administration.
WHAT WE KNOW: This is a mixed claim. In August 2023, a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap deal led to the release of $6 billion in Iranian assets previously frozen in South Korea. However, after an attack on Israel by Hamas in October 2023, the U.S. announced that Iran would not be able to access these funds anytime soon. While previous negotiations related to the 2015 nuclear deal could have granted Iran access to $100 billion in frozen assets, this figure is from an earlier context, not directly tied to the current administration.

CLAIM: Vance claimed that no major conflict occurred under Trump’s presidency.
WHAT WE KNOW: This requires more context. While Trump did not formally lead the U.S. into a new war, his term was marked by several military confrontations, including the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and missile strikes on Syria. Trump also made inflammatory statements, particularly towards North Korea , indicating the possibility of significant military action.

CLAIM: The U.S. is the cleanest economy in the world.
WHAT WE KNOW: This is false. According to the EU’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 2024, the U.S. was the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China. In 2023, the U.S. emitted 11.25% of global greenhouse gases, far behind China’s 30.1%. On a per capita basis, the U.S. also had higher emissions than several other nations, although countries like Canada and Russia emitted more on a per capita basis. The U.S. ranked 19th in the 2024 World Economic Forum 's Energy Transition Index.

CLAIM: Vance suggested that Kamala Harris’ policies have led to more energy production in China and increased manufacturing overseas.
WHAT WE KNOW: Vance may have been referencing the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which encourages domestic energy production and manufacturing. It is still too early to determine the full impact of the Act on U.S. manufacturing, but early research suggests that it has supported clean energy development domestically. China, which dominates the global supply chain for batteries and solar panels, has been excluded from certain subsidies under the Act, leading to tensions.

CLAIM: Trump’s economic policies resulted in the highest take-home pay in a generation.
WHAT WE KNOW: This is true. U.S. median household income reached a record high of $68,703 in 2019, the largest increase seen since the Census Bureau began tracking these figures in 1967. The rise was attributed to increased employment and higher full-time work rates.

CLAIM: Most gun violence in the U.S. involves illegally obtained firearms.
WHAT WE KNOW: This is somewhat misleading. Research on public mass shootings between 1966 and 2019 found that 77% of the firearms used were legally purchased, while only 13% were acquired illegally. Many guns used in school shootings were stolen from family members. Although many firearms used in crimes were initially purchased legally, they often changed hands illegally later on.

With inputs from Reuters