Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: What's in it for India

The emphasis on bipartisan support for India-US ties has been the leitmotif of political discourse in both countries about the relationship that is seen by many as among the most consequential for this century. For over two decades, India-US relations have been marked by steady growth driven as much by strategic convergence as an organic development of people-to-people ties.

In the circumstances, it goes without saying that the presidential election in the US next week is unlikely to have any impact on the broad contours of the relationship. However, India will be alert to how a Trump or Harris presidency might have a bearing on cooperation on some key issues and challenges:

Technology: Keeping the landmark initiative on critical and emerging technology (iCET), which was launched by Biden and Modi, going is among India’s foremost priorities as access to cutting edge technology in areas like defence, AI and quantum technologies is important for its growth and security. Dismantling regulatory barriers, the initiative allows India and the US to accelerate cooperation in joint development and production of advanced defence systems with focus on jet engines and munition-related technologies.

Amid concern about the delay in implementation of the GE-HAL deal for manufacturing jet engines, US ambassador to India Eric Garcetti tells TOI the agreement is “100 percent on track” and the US remains excited about it. While no American president will wreck this partnership, given also the need for the US to have India on its side in the technology war with China, the Americans will work to ensure no sensitive, dual-use technology is passed on to Russia.

Trade and immigration: India’s biggest concern with a potential Trump presidency comes from its likely restrictive trade and immigration policies. It was Trump who ended India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) in 2019 for its alleged failure to provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets. Trump has threatened to launch a tariff war against China and he’s unlikely to spare countries like India, which he described as a tariff abuser, and Brazil at a time even the Democrats stand accused of pandering to the protectionist sentiment. A mini trade deal under discussion during the Trump presidency also fell through as neither side was willing to compromise on tariffs.

Harris is expected to have a more nuanced approach on trade even though she, like Biden, is unlikely to dismantle the Trump-imposed higher tariffs. That’s still a better alternative though than Trump’s proposed reciprocal trade/ tariff act that could disrupt supply chains across the world. On immigration, any return of some of the H1B regulations that Trump attempted during his presidency, like higher wage requirements for foreign workers, will be bad news for the Indian IT sector.

Indo-Specific/ China and security: The convergence on China, as reflected in the growing Indo-Pacific partnership and Quad, will continue to act as a guiding factor in the relationship irrespective of who the president is. Notwithstanding efforts to normalize ties with China, which are still at an inchoate stage, India will need to build geopolitical leverages against Beijing and there’s perhaps no better way of doing it than to hit the gas in terms of its cooperation with like-minded countries in the region. While Harris is expected to broadly follow in Biden’s footsteps, India and several other partners might have some worries about possible unpredictability or incoherence and little regard for multilateralism under a Trump presidency. India, however, will take heart from the fact that it was under Trump that Quad was elevated to the ministerial level, foundational agreements for force interoperability were signed and India-US 2+2 ministerial dialogue was launched. For India, the convergence with Trump on issues like counterterrorism was also important.

Human rights: Given her track record, this is an issue Harris is hardwired to addressing all over the world and there’s no reason to believe she won’t prioritize it in talks with India if she indeed becomes the first woman to occupy the White House. It’s also one of the reasons why the Indian right wing, despite Harris’ Indian ancestry, believes Trump, who is unlikely to get into a lather over domestic Indian developments, might prove to be a better president for India. However, while Harris can be expected to be more vocal on concerns about democratic backsliding and declining religious freedom in India, she will ultimately defer likely to following American interests in ties with India, as she has done on the Gaza war by not breaking ranks with the president despite her concerns over the humanitarian situation.

Murder-for-hire: While human rights may not be a deal-breaker, this latest and unfortunate entrant into the list of India-US outstanding issues can potentially stymie progress in ties. Harris can be expected to pursue the Biden administration’s focus on ensuring accountability, without doing a Justin Trudeau on India, and the Indian government may have to find a way of addressing American calls for action. As Garcetti recently told TOI in an interview, there’s too much at stake for both countries to not handle the case properly. Trump’s return could ease some of the political pressure on India but it’s unlikely US prosecutors will not pursue the case as diligently or aggressively as they are doing now. Significantly, the US has expressed satisfaction so far over the progress in the Indian probe into the case.