When Xi Jinping gathers his closest international allies for one of the landmark summits of his more than a decade-long rule, many will be seeking reassurance after emerging scarred from conflicts.
They may not get it: the security-focused bloc co-founded by China has been all but absent when its partners needed it most.
Instead, China’s president is likely to dwell more on what’s ahead for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation at a time when Donald Trump tries to hem in Beijing’s ambitions and upends US alliances with the likes of India. The spotlight will especially fall on any joint statement issued by the grouping and the tone it adopts on the US, along with the series of bilateral meetings expected to take place on the sidelines.
At the huddle that kicks off on Sunday, Xi is preparing to approve the SCO’s development strategy for the next decade and set out his vision for global governance, with the political leaders of Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran seated together with him at the same table for the first time in years. Some guests including Russian President Vladimir Putin will then follow Xi to Beijing to attend a military parade on Sept. 3.
Also Read| China drought of rare earths to India in focus for Xi-Modi meet
“China is putting in a lot of effort and using its influence to make it one of the biggest SCO summits ever,” said Dylan Loh, assistant professor at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “This is also a statement of intent and demonstration of China’s growing profile and power — particularly in the context of US-China competition and suggestions of domestic economic malaise.”
The event will be the bloc’s largest ever, now that Belarus is its 10th full member. The lineup of global leaders headed to the Chinese port city of Tianjin — including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif — suggests the potential is there to break new ground.
Putin and Modi will be closely watched.
The summit offers Putin a chance to talk with Xi and Modi directly about the outcome of his meeting in Alaska with Trump and the prospect of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
It’s a rare opportunity for Putin to meet with his two most important energy partners, especially after Trump doubled US tariffs on India as punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
Together, China and India have purchased more than half of Russia’s energy exports since the start of 2023, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Chinese purchases are unlikely to change anytime soon, but Moscow faces a trickier predicament when it comes to gas.
Putin is likely to broach the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline once again when he meets with Xi. The project would take gas from the fields that formerly served Europe and supply China instead. But despite many years of discussion, Beijing hasn’t been willing to commit.
Modi is also expected to meet with the Chinese leader on Sunday, giving the two an opportunity to chart a path forward. Normalization of the relationship and the border detente are likely to figure in the talks, Indian officials said, asking not to be named as the discussions are private.
India had previously objected to the SCO’s draft statement that circulated in June for lacking text condemning the militant attacks against Indian-administered Kashmir, for which New Delhi blamed Pakistan.
“If India lines up behind the joint statement in the end, it suggests more willingness to stand alongside the SCO — and implicitly against Washington,” said Jeremy Chan, a former US diplomat in China and Japan.
Chan, who’s now a senior analyst on the China and Northeast Asia team at Eurasia Group, added that “any language directly critical of the US would also be an important signal of a more meaningful pivot by Delhi toward Beijing and Moscow.”
Ukraine, Iran
Although the gathering was planned long in advance, world events of the past six months have given it far more attention and weight.
Following a major attack by Israel and the US, Iran faces a threat of UN sanctions being reimposed by key European nations. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan engaged in their worst clash in half a century in May.
Now, India is moving closer to its regional rival China, as Trump alienates New Delhi by imposing tariffs, while Islamabad is strengthening ties with Washington.
Pakistani officials will hold sideline talks with Xi and Putin, local media reported, but the country doesn’t plan to have a meeting with India, according to its Foreign Office. Iran’s Foreign Ministry has also confirmed a meeting between Pezeshkian and Xi.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, a NATO member, has said his country considered joining. Though it’s been linked with the SCO since 2013 through a partnership agreement, full membership in the group would give Erdogan more leverage against the West.
The challenge for Xi is how to reverse a quarter-century track record of deadlock that has cast doubt on the alliance’s ability to deliver when it matters. Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin made clear the Chinese side is well aware of the stakes, saying last week the SCO must be prepared to deliver “tangible results” as the organization embraces a “new look, a new pace, and a new level.”
Initially seen in the West as an eastern counterweight to NATO, the bloc has expanded by adding new members that are either far removed from its original focus on Central Asia or, as in the case of India and Pakistan, are themselves embroiled in strife.
The bloc defines its “main goals” as being centered around “strengthening mutual confidence and good-neighborly relations among the member countries.”
Yet the body has repeatedly failed to stand up for its members, with examples including the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. A similar hands-off approach prevailed when it came to border clashes between India and Pakistan, as well as between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
“Recent history has shown that when a security crisis arises that affects a card-carrying member of the SCO — or an adjacent one — the SCO as an organization is nowhere to be found,” said Eurasia Group’s Chan. “When the going gets tough, China is absent even for its friends, whether on a bilateral or multilateral basis.”
Even so, the group is of central importance to Xi as he taps it and other China-backed bodies such as BRICS in remaking the world order and helping Beijing stake out a leadership role, especially as a champion of the Global South.
The SCO has nearly doubled in membership since being founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Counting observers and dialogue partners such as Mongolia and Saudi Arabia, that number expands to 26 nations.
What’s often missing are “common interests and trust between key members” — on top of a “history of disputes, differences and suspicion” — according to Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“All of this makes the SCO unlikely to coalesce into a bloc capable of challenging the US or Europe,” he said.
They may not get it: the security-focused bloc co-founded by China has been all but absent when its partners needed it most.
Instead, China’s president is likely to dwell more on what’s ahead for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation at a time when Donald Trump tries to hem in Beijing’s ambitions and upends US alliances with the likes of India. The spotlight will especially fall on any joint statement issued by the grouping and the tone it adopts on the US, along with the series of bilateral meetings expected to take place on the sidelines.
At the huddle that kicks off on Sunday, Xi is preparing to approve the SCO’s development strategy for the next decade and set out his vision for global governance, with the political leaders of Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran seated together with him at the same table for the first time in years. Some guests including Russian President Vladimir Putin will then follow Xi to Beijing to attend a military parade on Sept. 3.
Also Read| China drought of rare earths to India in focus for Xi-Modi meet
“China is putting in a lot of effort and using its influence to make it one of the biggest SCO summits ever,” said Dylan Loh, assistant professor at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “This is also a statement of intent and demonstration of China’s growing profile and power — particularly in the context of US-China competition and suggestions of domestic economic malaise.”
The event will be the bloc’s largest ever, now that Belarus is its 10th full member. The lineup of global leaders headed to the Chinese port city of Tianjin — including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif — suggests the potential is there to break new ground.
Putin and Modi will be closely watched.
The summit offers Putin a chance to talk with Xi and Modi directly about the outcome of his meeting in Alaska with Trump and the prospect of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
It’s a rare opportunity for Putin to meet with his two most important energy partners, especially after Trump doubled US tariffs on India as punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
Together, China and India have purchased more than half of Russia’s energy exports since the start of 2023, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Chinese purchases are unlikely to change anytime soon, but Moscow faces a trickier predicament when it comes to gas.
Putin is likely to broach the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline once again when he meets with Xi. The project would take gas from the fields that formerly served Europe and supply China instead. But despite many years of discussion, Beijing hasn’t been willing to commit.
Modi is also expected to meet with the Chinese leader on Sunday, giving the two an opportunity to chart a path forward. Normalization of the relationship and the border detente are likely to figure in the talks, Indian officials said, asking not to be named as the discussions are private.
India had previously objected to the SCO’s draft statement that circulated in June for lacking text condemning the militant attacks against Indian-administered Kashmir, for which New Delhi blamed Pakistan.
“If India lines up behind the joint statement in the end, it suggests more willingness to stand alongside the SCO — and implicitly against Washington,” said Jeremy Chan, a former US diplomat in China and Japan.
Chan, who’s now a senior analyst on the China and Northeast Asia team at Eurasia Group, added that “any language directly critical of the US would also be an important signal of a more meaningful pivot by Delhi toward Beijing and Moscow.”
Ukraine, Iran
Although the gathering was planned long in advance, world events of the past six months have given it far more attention and weight.
Following a major attack by Israel and the US, Iran faces a threat of UN sanctions being reimposed by key European nations. Meanwhile, India and Pakistan engaged in their worst clash in half a century in May.
Now, India is moving closer to its regional rival China, as Trump alienates New Delhi by imposing tariffs, while Islamabad is strengthening ties with Washington.
Pakistani officials will hold sideline talks with Xi and Putin, local media reported, but the country doesn’t plan to have a meeting with India, according to its Foreign Office. Iran’s Foreign Ministry has also confirmed a meeting between Pezeshkian and Xi.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, a NATO member, has said his country considered joining. Though it’s been linked with the SCO since 2013 through a partnership agreement, full membership in the group would give Erdogan more leverage against the West.
The challenge for Xi is how to reverse a quarter-century track record of deadlock that has cast doubt on the alliance’s ability to deliver when it matters. Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Bin made clear the Chinese side is well aware of the stakes, saying last week the SCO must be prepared to deliver “tangible results” as the organization embraces a “new look, a new pace, and a new level.”
Initially seen in the West as an eastern counterweight to NATO, the bloc has expanded by adding new members that are either far removed from its original focus on Central Asia or, as in the case of India and Pakistan, are themselves embroiled in strife.
The bloc defines its “main goals” as being centered around “strengthening mutual confidence and good-neighborly relations among the member countries.”
Yet the body has repeatedly failed to stand up for its members, with examples including the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. A similar hands-off approach prevailed when it came to border clashes between India and Pakistan, as well as between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
“Recent history has shown that when a security crisis arises that affects a card-carrying member of the SCO — or an adjacent one — the SCO as an organization is nowhere to be found,” said Eurasia Group’s Chan. “When the going gets tough, China is absent even for its friends, whether on a bilateral or multilateral basis.”
Even so, the group is of central importance to Xi as he taps it and other China-backed bodies such as BRICS in remaking the world order and helping Beijing stake out a leadership role, especially as a champion of the Global South.
The SCO has nearly doubled in membership since being founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Counting observers and dialogue partners such as Mongolia and Saudi Arabia, that number expands to 26 nations.
What’s often missing are “common interests and trust between key members” — on top of a “history of disputes, differences and suspicion” — according to Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“All of this makes the SCO unlikely to coalesce into a bloc capable of challenging the US or Europe,” he said.
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