American universities may see international student enrollment decline by as many as 150,000 this fall, a development that could cost the US higher education sector nearly $7 billion and threaten over 60,000 jobs. This estimate comes from a new analysis by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International, based on recent data from the US Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) and the State Department.
The report attributes the expected drop to recent visa disruptions, executive orders, and scrutiny measures introduced by the Trump administration. Unless student visa issuances rebound sharply by August, the study warns of a 15% drop in total international enrollment.
In the academic year 2023–24, US colleges hosted 1,126,690 international students — the highest number recorded, according to the Institute of International Education’s Open Doors report. These students made up 6% of the total US college population and included those on optional practical training (OPT), who stay for temporary employment related to their studies.
International student numbers had recovered post-pandemic, increasing by 200,000 since the 2020 decline. But the new forecast signals that this growth could reverse.
Key states face major financial losses
According to the NAFSA report, a 30–40% drop in new foreign students would significantly impact several US states. California alone could lose over $1 billion, while New York’s losses may be close to that figure. Illinois, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida could each see losses exceeding $200 million.
Four factors behind the projected fall:
Suspension of Visa Interviews: Student visa interviews were suspended between May 27 and June 18, 2025 — a peak period for issuances. Interviews have resumed, but consulates are now directed to scrutinize applicants’ social media accounts more closely.
Appointment Shortages: Limited or no visa appointments were reported in countries that are key sources of international students — including India, China, Nigeria, and Japan.
Declining Visa Issuance: F-1 visa grants fell 12% year-on-year from January to April 2025 and 22% in May. Though June data is pending, a decline of up to 90% is anticipated.
Visa Bans: A presidential executive order issued on June 4, 2025, imposed restrictions on applicants from 19 countries. A further 36 countries may be added, the report warns.
NAFSA highlighted that international students often pay full tuition fees at private institutions and out-of-state fees at public universities. Their financial contribution helps US colleges subsidize costs for domestic students.
NAFSA said, “The projected losses confirm higher education leaders’ concerns that anti-immigration policies would have a chilling effect on enrollment and revenue.”
Trump vs international students
In the past few months, the Trump administration has revoked or terminated visas of hundreds to thousands of international students, particularly those perceived as sympathetic to pro‑Palestinian viewpoints. By April 2025, over 1,000 visas had been canceled, and the administration implemented a “catch and revoke” strategy—scrutinizing social media for signs of support for groups like Hamas or antisemitic activity—to revoke existing student visas and block renewals. One high‑profile case involved Palestinian student Mahmoud Khalil, a lawful permanent resident, who was arrested by ICE without a warrant, drawing criticism for potential First Amendment violations.
Beginning late May 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US would “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those connected to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” accompanied by enhanced social media vetting for F, M, and J visa applicants. At US consulates, student visa interviews were suspended temporarily during late May–mid June re‑opening with stricter rules, such as requiring applicants to make their social media profiles public for government review. These policies have heightened fears among prospective and current international students and contributed to a chilling effect on international academic engagement in the US.
The report attributes the expected drop to recent visa disruptions, executive orders, and scrutiny measures introduced by the Trump administration. Unless student visa issuances rebound sharply by August, the study warns of a 15% drop in total international enrollment.
In the academic year 2023–24, US colleges hosted 1,126,690 international students — the highest number recorded, according to the Institute of International Education’s Open Doors report. These students made up 6% of the total US college population and included those on optional practical training (OPT), who stay for temporary employment related to their studies.
International student numbers had recovered post-pandemic, increasing by 200,000 since the 2020 decline. But the new forecast signals that this growth could reverse.
Key states face major financial losses
According to the NAFSA report, a 30–40% drop in new foreign students would significantly impact several US states. California alone could lose over $1 billion, while New York’s losses may be close to that figure. Illinois, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida could each see losses exceeding $200 million.
Four factors behind the projected fall:
Suspension of Visa Interviews: Student visa interviews were suspended between May 27 and June 18, 2025 — a peak period for issuances. Interviews have resumed, but consulates are now directed to scrutinize applicants’ social media accounts more closely.
Appointment Shortages: Limited or no visa appointments were reported in countries that are key sources of international students — including India, China, Nigeria, and Japan.
Declining Visa Issuance: F-1 visa grants fell 12% year-on-year from January to April 2025 and 22% in May. Though June data is pending, a decline of up to 90% is anticipated.
Visa Bans: A presidential executive order issued on June 4, 2025, imposed restrictions on applicants from 19 countries. A further 36 countries may be added, the report warns.
NAFSA highlighted that international students often pay full tuition fees at private institutions and out-of-state fees at public universities. Their financial contribution helps US colleges subsidize costs for domestic students.
NAFSA said, “The projected losses confirm higher education leaders’ concerns that anti-immigration policies would have a chilling effect on enrollment and revenue.”
Trump vs international students
In the past few months, the Trump administration has revoked or terminated visas of hundreds to thousands of international students, particularly those perceived as sympathetic to pro‑Palestinian viewpoints. By April 2025, over 1,000 visas had been canceled, and the administration implemented a “catch and revoke” strategy—scrutinizing social media for signs of support for groups like Hamas or antisemitic activity—to revoke existing student visas and block renewals. One high‑profile case involved Palestinian student Mahmoud Khalil, a lawful permanent resident, who was arrested by ICE without a warrant, drawing criticism for potential First Amendment violations.
Beginning late May 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US would “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those connected to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” accompanied by enhanced social media vetting for F, M, and J visa applicants. At US consulates, student visa interviews were suspended temporarily during late May–mid June re‑opening with stricter rules, such as requiring applicants to make their social media profiles public for government review. These policies have heightened fears among prospective and current international students and contributed to a chilling effect on international academic engagement in the US.
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