An uncertain world gets more perilous

The US on Saturday entered the Israel-Iran war, bombing Iran's three main nuclear sites-Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow. Donald Trump declared it a 'spectacular military success', but it remains to be seen whether the military operation has indeed destroyed Iran's nuclear capability or just caused severe damage to these sites. Iran has said it reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests and people. Retaliatory action is certain-where, how and how big remains the question. What is certain is that the world is in for even more uncertainty.

The US entry into the war was unprovoked. Trump has been unhappy with the pace and direction of the Washington-Tehran talks, and Israel has been egging on the US to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Reports on IAEA offsite radiation suggest that the sites have been severely damaged, and Iran had, in anticipation, likely moved its stockpile of enriched and highly enriched uranium to an undisclosed location. The US has acknowledged that the Isfahan site was more secure than anticipated.

That would mean the Iranian N-programme will be delayed, maybe even temporarily derailed, but not destroyed. The US attack could be the factor that gives the Iranians that extra push to get the programme over the line.

Any country that has been attacked, unprovoked, reserves the right to respond. For the region, indeed the world, the big question is the nature of the Iranian response. It could be attacks on US bases and military personnel, or disruptions of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global trade. The US action will likely strengthen the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea axis, creating further geopolitical fractures and fragmentation.