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Tata Steel, metal stocks crash up to 19% on growth worries

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Indian metal stocks witnessed a sharp decline today, falling by up to 19% as global trade uncertainties and growth-related concerns weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The drop came amid heightened fears over the impact of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel and aluminium imports, which have cast doubts over export prospects and overall demand recovery.

The shares of NMDC and Tata Steel experienced sharp fall, diving by 18.2% and 11.56% respectively. This was followed by stocks like Jindal Stainless, National Aluminium Company (NALCO), Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta crashed nearly 10% each.

Meanwhile, the shares of Hindalco fell by 9% to their day’s low of Rs 546.25 on the BSE.

The unchanged 25% U.S. tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to inflate domestic prices in the U.S., affecting global competitiveness. With exporters from countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan increasingly catering to markets like India and the Middle East, Indian producers now face a surge in cheap imports. This is putting immense pressure on domestic players, already grappling with thinning margins and volatile production volumes.

An earlier note by Jefferies stated that the U.S. market—though accounting for only 4% of India's steel exports—still plays a critical role in sentiment, particularly for companies like Hindalco whose subsidiary Novelis generates 13–15% of consolidated EBITDA from U.S.-linked businesses.

Also read: History Repeats? US tariffs have always preceded recessions, warns Nilesh Shah

Q4 preview
Domestic brokerage firm Nuvama expects Nifty 50 earnings to grow just 2% YoY in Q4FY25, with full-year FY25 EPS growth forecast at 6%, sharply lower than the 8% projected earlier. The revision is attributed to persistent earnings weakness, weak top-line growth, and rising global uncertainties, especially those linked to the impact of U.S. tariffs.

With this, Nuvama stated the sectors on which it is underweight. The sectors included in the list are Industrials, metals, IT, power, PSU banks.
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