Indian shares ended muted on Wednesday as caution stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions with Pakistan offset optimism over progress in U.S. trade negotiations. Gains in heavyweight HDFC Bank helped cushion the impact, while Bajaj Finance declined despite reporting a rise in fourth-quarter profit.
The benchmark BSE Sensex lost 46.14 points or 0.06% to close at 80,242.24, while the broader Nifty 50 index closed at 24,334.20, lower by 1.75 points or 0.01%.
The market capitalization of all listed companies on the BSE decreased by Rs 3.69 lakh crore to Rs 423.24 lakh crore.
Sector Watch
Bajaj Finance slumped 5% after brokerages flagged weaker-than-expected quarterly pre-provision profit and elevated credit costs as key concerns.
In contrast, index heavyweight HDFC Bank rose 0.9%, lending crucial support to the benchmarks.
For April, the Nifty and Sensex added 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively, with gains led by banks and financials on the back of steady earnings and sustained foreign inflows.
The IT index fell 3% in April, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline — its longest losing streak since October 2016.
Foreign portfolio investors have poured $4.4 billion into Indian equities over the past ten sessions, marking their longest buying streak in nearly two years. The inflows were driven by optimism over a potential U.S.-India trade deal, with officials from both sides signaling progress.
Separately, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given India’s military chiefs the authority to respond to last week’s deadly militant attack in Kashmir, raising geopolitical concerns.
Indian markets will be shut on Thursday for a holiday and will reopen on Friday, May 2.
Expert View
The broad market performed well this month, driven by reduced tariff risks, a potential U.S.-India trade deal, and strong FII inflows, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, adding that this momentum, however, is being capped by rising tensions between India and Pakistan and muted Q4 results.
"This negative bias is expected to persist in the near term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the minimal financial impact from the conflict. Consequently, any market consolidation is likely to be used as an investment opportunity," said Nair.
Global Markets
Global shares struggled for direction on Wednesday, while oil prices slid as optimism over easing trade tensions was tempered by a weak economic outlook and corporate stress from U.S. tariffs.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.67% and 0.5%, respectively, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged down 0.06%.
In China, factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in 16 months in April, with tariffs stalling a two-month recovery and fuelling expectations of more stimulus.
U.S. data showed the goods trade deficit hit a record high in March, as firms front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs, pointing to a drag on Q1 growth. First-quarter GDP data is due later in the day. Consumer confidence also fell to its lowest since mid-2019.
Wall Street futures failed to hold earlier gains amid mounting concerns over the U.S. outlook. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei added 0.32%.
In currencies, the dollar was on track for a 4.7% monthly drop — its worst since November 2022 — amid policy uncertainty under Trump.
Spot gold eased 0.15% to $3,310.55 an ounce.
FII/DII Tracker
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers for the tenth straight session on April 29, picking up equities worth Rs 2,385 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also extended their buying streak for a third day, investing Rs 1,369 crore.
Crude Impact
Oil prices extended their decline on Wednesday, heading for their biggest monthly drop in nearly three and a half years as the global trade war dampened fuel demand outlooks, compounded by growing supply concerns.
Brent crude futures, recovering from earlier losses, fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $63.76 per barrel by 1002 GMT.
Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee weathered multiple headwinds in April—including volatile U.S. trade policies and tensions with Pakistan—to end the month stronger, supported by robust equity inflows and increased dollar sales by exporters. On the final trading day, the rupee rose 0.91% to 84.4875 against the U.S. dollar, its highest level since November 29 and a year-to-date peak.
The currency gained 1.2% over the month, marking a second straight monthly advance and extending its recovery from the record low of 87.95 seen in February.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.20% to 99.44.
The benchmark BSE Sensex lost 46.14 points or 0.06% to close at 80,242.24, while the broader Nifty 50 index closed at 24,334.20, lower by 1.75 points or 0.01%.
The market capitalization of all listed companies on the BSE decreased by Rs 3.69 lakh crore to Rs 423.24 lakh crore.
Sector Watch
Bajaj Finance slumped 5% after brokerages flagged weaker-than-expected quarterly pre-provision profit and elevated credit costs as key concerns.
In contrast, index heavyweight HDFC Bank rose 0.9%, lending crucial support to the benchmarks.
For April, the Nifty and Sensex added 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively, with gains led by banks and financials on the back of steady earnings and sustained foreign inflows.
The IT index fell 3% in April, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline — its longest losing streak since October 2016.
Foreign portfolio investors have poured $4.4 billion into Indian equities over the past ten sessions, marking their longest buying streak in nearly two years. The inflows were driven by optimism over a potential U.S.-India trade deal, with officials from both sides signaling progress.
Separately, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given India’s military chiefs the authority to respond to last week’s deadly militant attack in Kashmir, raising geopolitical concerns.
Indian markets will be shut on Thursday for a holiday and will reopen on Friday, May 2.
Expert View
The broad market performed well this month, driven by reduced tariff risks, a potential U.S.-India trade deal, and strong FII inflows, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, adding that this momentum, however, is being capped by rising tensions between India and Pakistan and muted Q4 results.
"This negative bias is expected to persist in the near term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the minimal financial impact from the conflict. Consequently, any market consolidation is likely to be used as an investment opportunity," said Nair.
Global Markets
Global shares struggled for direction on Wednesday, while oil prices slid as optimism over easing trade tensions was tempered by a weak economic outlook and corporate stress from U.S. tariffs.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.67% and 0.5%, respectively, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged down 0.06%.
In China, factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in 16 months in April, with tariffs stalling a two-month recovery and fuelling expectations of more stimulus.
U.S. data showed the goods trade deficit hit a record high in March, as firms front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs, pointing to a drag on Q1 growth. First-quarter GDP data is due later in the day. Consumer confidence also fell to its lowest since mid-2019.
Wall Street futures failed to hold earlier gains amid mounting concerns over the U.S. outlook. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei added 0.32%.
In currencies, the dollar was on track for a 4.7% monthly drop — its worst since November 2022 — amid policy uncertainty under Trump.
Spot gold eased 0.15% to $3,310.55 an ounce.
FII/DII Tracker
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers for the tenth straight session on April 29, picking up equities worth Rs 2,385 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also extended their buying streak for a third day, investing Rs 1,369 crore.
Crude Impact
Oil prices extended their decline on Wednesday, heading for their biggest monthly drop in nearly three and a half years as the global trade war dampened fuel demand outlooks, compounded by growing supply concerns.
Brent crude futures, recovering from earlier losses, fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $63.76 per barrel by 1002 GMT.
Rupee vs Dollar
The Indian rupee weathered multiple headwinds in April—including volatile U.S. trade policies and tensions with Pakistan—to end the month stronger, supported by robust equity inflows and increased dollar sales by exporters. On the final trading day, the rupee rose 0.91% to 84.4875 against the U.S. dollar, its highest level since November 29 and a year-to-date peak.
The currency gained 1.2% over the month, marking a second straight monthly advance and extending its recovery from the record low of 87.95 seen in February.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.20% to 99.44.
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